1月30日，中(zhong)國電(dian)力(li)企業聯合會召開新(xin)(xin)聞發布會，中(zhong)電(dian)聯新(xin)(xin)聞發言人、秘(mi)書長郝英杰(jie)發布《2023-2024年度(du)全國電(dian)力(li)供需形勢分析預(yu)測報告》。
報告指(zhi)出，2023年，全國全社會用電(dian)量9.22萬(wan)億千(qian)瓦時，人均(jun)用電(dian)量6539千(qian)瓦時;全社會用電(dian)量同(tong)比增(zeng)長6.7%，增(zeng)速(su)比2022年提高(gao)3.1個百分點(dian)，國民經濟(ji)回升向好拉(la)動電(dian)力消費增(zeng)速(su)同(tong)比提高(gao)。
電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力生產(chan)供(gong)應方面，截至2023年(nian)底，全(quan)國全(quan)口徑發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機容(rong)量(liang)(liang)29.2億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，同比(bi)增(zeng)長13.9%;人均(jun)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機容(rong)量(liang)(liang)自2014年(nian)底歷史性突(tu)破1千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)后，在2023年(nian)首次(ci)歷史性突(tu)破2千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，達到2.1千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)。非化(hua)石能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機在2023年(nian)首次(ci)超過(guo)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機規模，占(zhan)總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機容(rong)量(liang)(liang)比(bi)重(zhong)在2023年(nian)首次(ci)超過(guo)50%，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機占(zhan)比(bi)首次(ci)降至40%以下。
報(bao)告預(yu)測，到(dao)(dao)2024年底，全(quan)國(guo)發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量預(yu)計達到(dao)(dao)32.5億千(qian)(qian)瓦，同比增(zeng)長(chang)12%左(zuo)右，2024年新(xin)增(zeng)發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)將(jiang)再次(ci)(ci)(ci)突破3億千(qian)(qian)瓦，其中(zhong)，新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)將(jiang)再次(ci)(ci)(ci)超(chao)過2億千(qian)(qian)瓦。在新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)持續(xu)快速發展的帶(dai)動下，預(yu)計到(dao)(dao)2024年底，我國(guo)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)累計裝(zhuang)機(ji)規模將(jiang)達到(dao)(dao)13億千(qian)(qian)瓦左(zuo)右，占總裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量比重上升至40%左(zuo)右，首(shou)次(ci)(ci)(ci)超(chao)過煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)規模。
綜合考慮宏觀經濟、用(yong)(yong)能電氣化等(deng)因素，預計(ji)2024年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)全社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電量9.8萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，比(bi)2023年(nian)(nian)增長(chang)6%左右。預計(ji)2024年(nian)(nian)全國統調最高(gao)用(yong)(yong)電負(fu)荷14.5億千(qian)瓦(wa)，比(bi)2023年(nian)(nian)增加1億千(qian)瓦(wa)左右。
人民(min)日報(bao)、新華社(she)、央視總臺等20多家(jia)媒體參加本次發布會。
報告全文如下：
2023-2024年度全國電力供需形勢分析預測報告
中國電力企業聯合會
2023年(nian)，電(dian)力(li)(li)行業(ye)以(yi)習(xi)近(jin)平新(xin)時代中國(guo)特色社會(hui)主(zhu)義思想為指(zhi)導，認真貫(guan)徹習(xi)近(jin)平總書記關于(yu)能源電(dian)力(li)(li)的重要講話和重要指(zhi)示批示精神，以(yi)及“四個(ge)革命(ming)、一個(ge)合作”能源安全新(xin)戰略，落(luo)實黨中央、國(guo)務(wu)院(yuan)決策部署(shu)，弘揚電(dian)力(li)(li)精神，經(jing)(jing)受(shou)住了上半(ban)年(nian)來水持(chi)續(xu)偏(pian)枯、夏季(ji)(ji)多輪(lun)高溫、冬季(ji)(ji)大范圍極端嚴寒(han)等考驗，為經(jing)(jing)濟社會(hui)發展(zhan)和人民美好生活提供了堅(jian)強電(dian)力(li)(li)保(bao)障。電(dian)力(li)(li)供應(ying)安全穩定，電(dian)力(li)(li)消費穩中向好，電(dian)力(li)(li)供需總體平衡，電(dian)力(li)(li)綠(lv)色低碳(tan)轉型持(chi)續(xu)推進。
一、2023年全國電力供需情況
(一)電力消(xiao)費需求情況
2023年，全國全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)9.22萬億千瓦(wa)時，人均(jun)(jun)用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)6539千瓦(wa)時;全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)6.7%，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)比(bi)(bi)2022年提(ti)(ti)高(gao)3.1個百分點(dian)，國民經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)回升(sheng)向好拉動電力(li)消費增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)。各(ge)季(ji)度全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)3.6%、6.4%、6.6%和10.0%，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)逐(zhu)季(ji)上升(sheng);受2022年同(tong)(tong)期低基數以及經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)回升(sheng)等因素影響，四(si)季(ji)度全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)明顯提(ti)(ti)高(gao)，四(si)季(ji)度的(de)兩(liang)年平均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)為6.8%，與三季(ji)度的(de)兩(liang)年平均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)接近(jin)。
一(yi)(yi)是第(di)(di)一(yi)(yi)產(chan)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量延續快(kuai)速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)勢頭。2023年(nian)，第(di)(di)一(yi)(yi)產(chan)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量1278億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)11.5%;各(ge)季度(du)同(tong)比分(fen)(fen)別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)9.7%、14.2%、10.2%和12.2%。近年(nian)來電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)企(qi)業(ye)積極助力(li)鄉村振興，大力(li)實施農(nong)網鞏固提(ti)升工程，完(wan)善鄉村電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)基(ji)礎(chu)設施，推動農(nong)業(ye)生產(chan)、鄉村產(chan)業(ye)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化改造，拉動第(di)(di)一(yi)(yi)產(chan)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)保(bao)持快(kuai)速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。分(fen)(fen)行業(ye)看，農(nong)業(ye)、漁業(ye)、畜牧(mu)業(ye)全(quan)年(nian)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量同(tong)比分(fen)(fen)別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)7.8%、9.2%、18.3%。
二是(shi)第二產(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)逐季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)上升(sheng)。2023年(nian)，第二產(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)6.07萬(wan)億千瓦時(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)6.5%;各季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)4.2%、4.7%、7.3%和9.4%。2023年(nian)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)7.4%，分(fen)(fen)大(da)類看，四(si)(si)(si)大(da)高(gao)載能行(xing)業(ye)全(quan)(quan)年(nian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)5.3%，各季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)4.2%、0.9%、7.2%和8.7%，三(san)、四(si)(si)(si)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)的同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)以(yi)及兩年(nian)平(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)均(jun)有較為(wei)明(ming)顯的回(hui)升(sheng)。高(gao)技術(shu)及裝備制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)全(quan)(quan)年(nian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)11.3%，超(chao)過制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)整體增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)水平(ping)3.9個百分(fen)(fen)點，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)領先;各季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)4.0%、11.7%、13.3%和14.8%。其(qi)中，電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣機(ji)械(xie)和器材制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)領先，各季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)的同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)及兩年(nian)平(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)均(jun)超(chao)過20%。消(xiao)費品制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)全(quan)(quan)年(nian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)7.0%，季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)從一季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)的下降1.7%轉為(wei)二季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)7.1%，三(san)、四(si)(si)(si)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)分(fen)(fen)別進一步上升(sheng)至(zhi)8.4%、13.1%，各季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)的兩年(nian)平(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)也(ye)呈逐季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)上升(sheng)態(tai)勢，在(zai)一定程度(du)(du)(du)上反映出2023年(nian)我國終端消(xiao)費品市場呈逐步回(hui)暖態(tai)勢。其(qi)他制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)行(xing)業(ye)全(quan)(quan)年(nian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)10.4%，各季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)5.2%、10.7%、12.7%和12.2%;其(qi)中，石(shi)油(you)/煤炭及其(qi)他燃(ran)料加工業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)領先，該行(xing)業(ye)各季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)的同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)及兩年(nian)平(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)均(jun)超(chao)過10%。
三是第(di)三產業(ye)(ye)用電量(liang)(liang)恢復(fu)快速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)勢頭。2023年，第(di)三產業(ye)(ye)用電量(liang)(liang)1.67萬(wan)億千(qian)瓦時，同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)12.2%。各(ge)季度同(tong)比分(fen)別(bie)增(zeng)長(chang)4.1%、15.9%、10.5%和(he)(he)19.1%;各(ge)季度的兩年平均(jun)增(zeng)速(su)分(fen)別(bie)為5.3%、7.9%、9.3%和(he)(he)11.1%，逐季上升，反(fan)映出(chu)隨著新冠(guan)疫情防控轉段(duan)，服務(wu)業(ye)(ye)經濟運行呈(cheng)穩步恢復(fu)態勢。批發和(he)(he)零售業(ye)(ye)、住宿和(he)(he)餐飲業(ye)(ye)、租賃和(he)(he)商務(wu)服務(wu)業(ye)(ye)、交通運輸/倉儲和(he)(he)郵政(zheng)業(ye)(ye)全(quan)年用電量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比增(zeng)速(su)處于(yu)14%~18%，這四個(ge)行業(ye)(ye)在2022年部分(fen)時段(duan)受(shou)疫情沖擊大(da)，疫情后(hou)恢復(fu)態勢明顯。電動(dong)汽車高速(su)發展拉動(dong)充(chong)換(huan)電服務(wu)業(ye)(ye)2023年用電量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)78.1%。
四是(shi)城(cheng)鄉居民(min)生活(huo)(huo)(huo)用(yong)電(dian)量低(di)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長。2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)，城(cheng)鄉居民(min)生活(huo)(huo)(huo)用(yong)電(dian)量1.35萬億(yi)千瓦時，同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長0.9%，上年(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)基數是(shi)2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)居民(min)生活(huo)(huo)(huo)用(yong)電(dian)量低(di)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長的重要原因。各(ge)季(ji)度的同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分別為(wei)0.2%、2.6%、-0.5%、2.3%，各(ge)季(ji)度的兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)平均增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分別為(wei)5.9%、5.0%、9.4%和(he)8.7%。
五是全國31個省份(fen)用電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)均為正增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，西部地(di)區用電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速領(ling)先(xian)。2023年(nian)，東(dong)、中、西部和東(dong)北地(di)區全社會用電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同比分別增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.9%、4.3%、8.1%和5.1%。分省份(fen)看，2023年(nian)全國31個省份(fen)全社會用電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)均為正增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，其中，海南、西藏、內蒙古、寧夏(xia)、廣西、青海6個省份(fen)同比增(zeng)(zeng)速超過(guo)10%。
(二)電力生產供應情況
截至2023年(nian)底，全(quan)國全(quan)口徑發(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機容量(liang)29.2億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)，同比增(zeng)長13.9%;人均(jun)發(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機容量(liang)自2014年(nian)底歷(li)史性(xing)突破(po)1千瓦(wa)(wa)/人后(hou)，在(zai)2023年(nian)首(shou)次(ci)歷(li)史性(xing)突破(po)2千瓦(wa)(wa)/人，達到2.1千瓦(wa)(wa)/人。非(fei)化石能源(yuan)發(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機在(zai)2023年(nian)首(shou)次(ci)超過(guo)火電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機規模，占總(zong)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機容量(liang)比重在(zai)2023年(nian)首(shou)次(ci)超過(guo)50%，煤電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機占比首(shou)次(ci)降至40%以(yi)下。從分類型投資、發(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機增(zeng)速及結構變化等(deng)情況看，電力(li)行(xing)業綠(lv)色低(di)碳轉型趨勢(shi)持續(xu)推進。
一(yi)是電(dian)力投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)快速增(zeng)(zeng)長，非化石能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)占(zhan)電(dian)源(yuan)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)達到九成(cheng)(cheng)。2023年，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點調(diao)查企業電(dian)力完(wan)(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長20.2%。分類型看，電(dian)源(yuan)完(wan)(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長30.1%，其(qi)中(zhong)非化石能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長31.5%，占(zhan)電(dian)源(yuan)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)的比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)達到89.2%。太陽能(neng)發電(dian)、風電(dian)、核(he)電(dian)、火電(dian)、水電(dian)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)分別增(zeng)(zeng)長38.7%、27.5%、20.8%、15.0%和13.7%。電(dian)網工程(cheng)建(jian)設完(wan)(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長5.4%。電(dian)網企業進一(yi)步加強農網鞏固提(ti)升及配(pei)網投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)建(jian)設，110千伏及以下等級電(dian)網投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)占(zhan)電(dian)網工程(cheng)完(wan)(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)總(zong)額的比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)達到55.0%。
二是新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)并(bing)網(wang)太(tai)陽能(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)超過2億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，并(bing)網(wang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)太(tai)陽能(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)總(zong)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)突破10億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)。2023年(nian)，全(quan)(quan)國新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)3.7億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，同(tong)比(bi)多(duo)投產1.7億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa);其(qi)(qi)中，新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)并(bing)網(wang)太(tai)陽能(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)2.2億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，同(tong)比(bi)多(duo)投產1.3億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，占(zhan)(zhan)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)總(zong)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)的比(bi)重(zhong)達到(dao)58.5%。截(jie)至2023年(nian)底，全(quan)(quan)國全(quan)(quan)口徑(jing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)29.2億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，其(qi)(qi)中，非化(hua)石能(neng)源發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)15.7億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，占(zhan)(zhan)總(zong)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)比(bi)重(zhong)在(zai)2023年(nian)首次突破50%，達到(dao)53.9%。分(fen)(fen)(fen)類型看，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)4.2億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，其(qi)(qi)中抽水(shui)蓄(xu)能(neng)5094萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa);核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)5691萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa);并(bing)網(wang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)4.4億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，其(qi)(qi)中，陸上(shang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)4.0億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)、海(hai)上(shang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)3729萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa);并(bing)網(wang)太(tai)陽能(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)6.1億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)。全(quan)(quan)國并(bing)網(wang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)太(tai)陽能(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)合計(ji)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)從2022年(nian)底的7.6億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，連續(xu)突破8億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)、9億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)、10億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)大(da)關，2023年(nian)底達到(dao)10.5億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)38.6%，占(zhan)(zhan)總(zong)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)比(bi)重(zhong)為36.0%，同(tong)比(bi)提高6.4個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)13.9億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，其(qi)(qi)中，煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)11.6億(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)3.4%，占(zhan)(zhan)總(zong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)的比(bi)重(zhong)為39.9%，首次降(jiang)至40%以下，同(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)低4.0個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。
三是(shi)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)，煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)占比(bi)(bi)仍(reng)接(jie)近六成(cheng)，充分(fen)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)揮兜底(di)保供作用。2023年(nian)，全(quan)國(guo)規(gui)模以上(shang)(shang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)8.91萬億千瓦時(shi)，同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)5.2%。全(quan)國(guo)規(gui)模以上(shang)(shang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)中(zhong)的水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)全(quan)年(nian)同比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)5.6%。年(nian)初主要水(shui)庫(ku)蓄水(shui)不足以及上(shang)(shang)半(ban)年(nian)降(jiang)水(shui)持續偏少，導致上(shang)(shang)半(ban)年(nian)規(gui)模以上(shang)(shang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)22.9%;下(xia)半(ban)年(nian)降(jiang)水(shui)形勢好(hao)轉(zhuan)以及上(shang)(shang)年(nian)同期基(ji)數低，8-12月水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)轉(zhuan)為同比(bi)(bi)正增長(chang)。2023年(nian)，全(quan)國(guo)規(gui)模以上(shang)(shang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)中(zhong)的火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)分(fen)別增長(chang)6.1%和3.7%。2023年(nian)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)占總發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)重接(jie)近六成(cheng)，煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)仍(reng)是(shi)當前我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供應(ying)的主力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源，有(you)效彌補了(le)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)出(chu)力(li)的下(xia)降(jiang)。
四是(shi)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)、核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設備利用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)均同比(bi)(bi)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)。2023年，全國6000千瓦及以(yi)上電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設備利用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)3592小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同比(bi)(bi)降(jiang)低(di)101小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。分類型看，水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)3133小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同比(bi)(bi)降(jiang)低(di)285小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，其中，常規水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)3423小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同比(bi)(bi)降(jiang)低(di)278小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi);抽(chou)水(shui)(shui)蓄能(neng)1175小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同比(bi)(bi)降(jiang)低(di)6小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。火電(dian)(dian)(dian)4466小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同比(bi)(bi)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)76小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi);其中，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)4685小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同比(bi)(bi)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)92小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)7670小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同比(bi)(bi)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)54小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。并網風電(dian)(dian)(dian)2225小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同比(bi)(bi)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)7小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。并網太(tai)陽能(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)1286小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同比(bi)(bi)降(jiang)低(di)54小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。
五是(shi)跨區、跨省(sheng)輸(shu)(shu)送(song)(song)電量(liang)較快增(zeng)長(chang)。2023年，全國新(xin)增(zeng)220千(qian)(qian)(qian)伏(fu)(fu)(fu)及(ji)以(yi)上(shang)輸(shu)(shu)電線路長(chang)度(du)3.81萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)米，同(tong)比少投產557千(qian)(qian)(qian)米;新(xin)增(zeng)220千(qian)(qian)(qian)伏(fu)(fu)(fu)及(ji)以(yi)上(shang)變電設備容(rong)量(liang)(交流)2.57億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)伏(fu)(fu)(fu)安(an)，同(tong)比少投產354萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)伏(fu)(fu)(fu)安(an);新(xin)增(zeng)直(zhi)流換流容(rong)量(liang)1600萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦。2023年，全國完成跨區輸(shu)(shu)送(song)(song)電量(liang)8497億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)9.7%;其中，西北區域(yu)外送(song)(song)電量(liang)3097億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi)，占跨區輸(shu)(shu)送(song)(song)電量(liang)的36.5%。2023年，全國跨省(sheng)輸(shu)(shu)送(song)(song)電量(liang)1.85萬(wan)億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)7.2%。
六是市(shi)場(chang)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)較(jiao)快增(zeng)長(chang)。2023年，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)各電(dian)(dian)力(li)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)中心累計(ji)組織完成市(shi)場(chang)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)5.67萬(wan)億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)7.9%，占(zhan)全(quan)(quan)社(she)會用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)比重為61.4%，同(tong)比提高0.6個百分點。其中全(quan)(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)場(chang)中長(chang)期電(dian)(dian)力(li)直接(jie)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)4.43萬(wan)億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)7%。
(三(san))全國電力供需情況
2023年(nian)電(dian)力(li)(li)系統安(an)全(quan)穩(wen)定運行(xing)，全(quan)國電(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)總體平衡，電(dian)力(li)(li)保供(gong)(gong)取得好成效。年(nian)初，受來水偏枯、電(dian)煤(mei)供(gong)(gong)應緊張、用電(dian)負(fu)荷增(zeng)長等(deng)因素疊加影響(xiang)，云南(nan)、貴州、蒙西等(deng)少(shao)數(shu)省級電(dian)網在部(bu)分(fen)時(shi)段(duan)電(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)形勢較(jiao)為緊張，通過(guo)源網荷儲(chu)協(xie)同(tong)發力(li)(li)，守牢了(le)民生用電(dian)安(an)全(quan)底線。夏(xia)季(ji)，各(ge)相關政(zheng)府部(bu)門及(ji)電(dian)力(li)(li)企(qi)業提前(qian)做好了(le)充分(fen)準備，迎(ying)峰(feng)度夏(xia)期間全(quan)國電(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)形勢總體平衡，各(ge)省級電(dian)網均未采取有序用電(dian)措(cuo)施(shi)，創造了(le)近年(nian)來迎(ying)峰(feng)度夏(xia)電(dian)力(li)(li)保供(gong)(gong)最好成效。冬季(ji)，12月多地出現大范圍強(qiang)寒(han)潮、強(qiang)雨(yu)雪天氣，電(dian)力(li)(li)行(xing)業企(qi)業全(quan)力(li)(li)應對雨(yu)雪冰(bing)凍，全(quan)國近十個省級電(dian)網電(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)形勢偏緊，部(bu)分(fen)省級電(dian)網通過(guo)需(xu)(xu)求側響(xiang)應等(deng)措(cuo)施(shi)，保障了(le)電(dian)力(li)(li)系統安(an)全(quan)穩(wen)定運行(xing)。
二、2024年全國電力供需形勢預測
(一)電力消費預測
預(yu)計(ji)2024年(nian)(nian)全國電(dian)力消費平穩增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。綜合(he)考慮宏觀(guan)經(jing)濟、終端用能電(dian)氣化等因素，根據不同(tong)預(yu)測(ce)方法對全社會用電(dian)量的預(yu)測(ce)結果(guo)，預(yu)計(ji)2024年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)全社會用電(dian)量9.8萬億千瓦時，比(bi)2023年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6%左(zuo)(zuo)右。預(yu)計(ji)2024年(nian)(nian)全國統調(diao)最高用電(dian)負荷14.5億千瓦，比(bi)2023年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)加1億千瓦左(zuo)(zuo)右。
(二)電力供應預測
預(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)2024年新(xin)(xin)(xin)投產發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)模將(jiang)再(zai)超3億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦，新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)累(lei)計(ji)(ji)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)模將(jiang)首次(ci)超過煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)模。在新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)持續(xu)快速發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展的(de)帶動下，預(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)2024年全國新(xin)(xin)(xin)增發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)將(jiang)再(zai)次(ci)突破3億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦，新(xin)(xin)(xin)增規(gui)模與2023年基本相當。2024年底(di)，全國發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量預(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)達(da)到32.5億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦，同比(bi)增長12%左(zuo)右(you)。火電(dian)(dian)14.6億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦，其中(zhong)(zhong)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)12億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦左(zuo)右(you)，占(zhan)總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)比(bi)重(zhong)降至37%。非化石能(neng)(neng)源發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)合計(ji)(ji)18.6億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦，占(zhan)總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)的(de)比(bi)重(zhong)上(shang)升(sheng)至57%左(zuo)右(you);其中(zhong)(zhong)，并網風(feng)電(dian)(dian)5.3億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦、并網太陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)7.8億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦，并網風(feng)電(dian)(dian)和太陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)合計(ji)(ji)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)模將(jiang)超過煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)，占(zhan)總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)比(bi)重(zhong)上(shang)升(sheng)至40%左(zuo)右(you)，部分地(di)區新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源消納壓力(li)凸顯。
(三)電力供需形勢預測(ce)
預(yu)計2024年迎峰(feng)度(du)夏和迎峰(feng)度(du)冬(dong)期間(jian)全國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)形(xing)勢總體緊平(ping)衡(heng)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)和需(xu)求，以及氣候的不確(que)定性(xing)等多方面(mian)因(yin)素交織(zhi)疊加，給電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)形(xing)勢帶來不確(que)定性(xing)。綜合考慮電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)消費需(xu)求增長、電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)投產等情(qing)況，預(yu)計2024年全國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)形(xing)勢總體緊平(ping)衡(heng)。迎峰(feng)度(du)夏和迎峰(feng)度(du)冬(dong)期間(jian)，在充(chong)分考慮跨(kua)省跨(kua)區電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)互濟的前提下(xia)，華(hua)北、華(hua)東、華(hua)中、西南(nan)(nan)、南(nan)(nan)方等區域(yu)中有部分省級電(dian)(dian)(dian)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)偏(pian)緊，部分時段需(xu)要實施(shi)需(xu)求側響(xiang)應(ying)等措(cuo)施(shi)。
三、有關建議
2024年，我國宏觀經濟及(ji)電(dian)力消費保(bao)持平(ping)穩增長，電(dian)力保(bao)供(gong)壓力上升。為切(qie)實做(zuo)好(hao)今春及(ji)后(hou)續電(dian)力保(bao)供(gong)工(gong)作，全力保(bao)障大電(dian)網安全穩定(ding)，守好(hao)民生用電(dian)底線(xian)，推動經濟社會高質量發展，結合電(dian)力供(gong)需形勢(shi)和行業發展趨勢(shi)，提出以下幾(ji)點建議：
(一)扎(zha)實(shi)做好電力安全(quan)供應(ying)工(gong)作
一是做(zuo)好一次能源跟(gen)蹤監(jian)(jian)(jian)測(ce)、負(fu)(fu)荷預(yu)警和災害(hai)應(ying)急(ji)(ji)機制建(jian)設。加強(qiang)來(lai)水(shui)、風、光(guang)跟(gen)蹤監(jian)(jian)(jian)測(ce),提(ti)升預(yu)報準確性;加強(qiang)煤(mei)炭、油氣等能源供耗存監(jian)(jian)(jian)測(ce);滾(gun)動開展用(yong)電(dian)負(fu)(fu)荷預(yu)測(ce)及(ji)預(yu)警。建(jian)立健全電(dian)力(li)氣象(xiang)災害(hai)監(jian)(jian)(jian)測(ce)系統(tong)，完(wan)善微氣象(xiang)、覆(fu)冰等在線監(jian)(jian)(jian)測(ce)裝(zhuang)置部署，加強(qiang)極(ji)端天氣對電(dian)網影響災害(hai)研判預(yu)警。進一步強(qiang)化民生(sheng)(sheng)保(bao)供應(ying)急(ji)(ji)機制，提(ti)升災害(hai)應(ying)急(ji)(ji)處(chu)置能力(li)。加大重點(dian)地(di)區(qu)應(ying)急(ji)(ji)裝(zhuang)備配置力(li)度，確保(bao)系統(tong)安全運行，提(ti)升極(ji)端條件(jian)下民生(sheng)(sheng)保(bao)障供電(dian)能力(li)。
二是(shi)統籌做(zuo)好源(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)(wang)(wang)規(gui)劃(hua)建設(she)。分析電(dian)(dian)(dian)力送受端不同(tong)地區的網(wang)(wang)(wang)源(yuan)(yuan)投資合(he)理比例(li)，統籌推(tui)進電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)建設(she)，避免由(you)于網(wang)(wang)(wang)源(yuan)(yuan)建設(she)不協同(tong)引起大規(gui)模棄能(neng)。補(bu)強電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)抵御(yu)自然災害的薄弱(ruo)環節，提升電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)設(she)備(bei)防災能(neng)力。結合(he)新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)車充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁建設(she)，開展城(cheng)市配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)擴(kuo)容和改造升級，大力推(tui)廣智能(neng)有(you)序充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)建設(she)和改造。加快農村電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)鞏固提升工程，支(zhi)撐農村可再生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)開發。
三是(shi)提升電(dian)源(yuan)供(gong)(gong)應能力(li)(li)。做好一次燃料供(gong)(gong)應保(bao)障，繼續執行煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭保(bao)供(gong)(gong)政策，加大煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭先進(jin)產能釋放力(li)(li)度，鞏固電(dian)力(li)(li)保(bao)供(gong)(gong)基礎(chu);保(bao)持(chi)進(jin)口煤(mei)(mei)(mei)政策穩定，給予用煤(mei)(mei)(mei)企業(ye)平(ping)穩長久(jiu)的政策預期;引導電(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)價格穩定在合理(li)區間。推動納(na)入規劃的電(dian)源(yuan)按時投產，同時做好并(bing)網(wang)服務，確保(bao)常規電(dian)源(yuan)應并(bing)盡(jin)并(bing)，強化機組(zu)運行維護，嚴格非計劃停運和出力(li)(li)受阻管理(li)，挖掘機組(zu)頂峰潛力(li)(li)。
四是挖掘輸(shu)(shu)電(dian)通道(dao)(dao)能(neng)力(li)。加強跨(kua)(kua)省跨(kua)(kua)區電(dian)力(li)余(yu)缺互(hu)(hu)濟，優(you)化(hua)跨(kua)(kua)省區電(dian)力(li)調(diao)配(pei)(pei)機(ji)制(zhi)，做(zuo)好(hao)中長期、現貨、應(ying)急調(diao)度的銜接。用足用好(hao)跨(kua)(kua)省跨(kua)(kua)區輸(shu)(shu)電(dian)通道(dao)(dao)，做(zuo)到資(zi)源互(hu)(hu)補、時空互(hu)(hu)濟、市場互(hu)(hu)惠(hui)。充分發揮(hui)配(pei)(pei)套電(dian)源的調(diao)節(jie)能(neng)力(li)，允許配(pei)(pei)套電(dian)源富余(yu)能(neng)力(li)在更(geng)大范(fan)圍內(nei)進(jin)行市場化(hua)配(pei)(pei)置。
五是拓(tuo)寬需求側響應覆蓋范圍。按照“誰承(cheng)擔(dan)誰受益”的(de)(de)(de)原(yuan)則，拓(tuo)寬資金渠道，優化(hua)調整(zheng)市(shi)場分擔(dan)費(fei)用和運(yun)行費(fei)用等相關(guan)政策措施(shi)，形(xing)成合(he)理的(de)(de)(de)需求響應市(shi)場化(hua)補償機制。進一步(bu)完善電(dian)價(jia)體(ti)系，細化(hua)峰期(qi)、谷期(qi)電(dian)價(jia)時段，增加較小時間尺(chi)度(du)的(de)(de)(de)分時電(dian)價(jia)，引導(dao)和激發(fa)用戶錯峰用電(dian)的(de)(de)(de)積極性(xing)。適當(dang)降低負荷聚合(he)商(shang)的(de)(de)(de)準入(ru)門檻(jian)。
(二)加(jia)快(kuai)建立(li)健全市場化電價體系(xi)
一是落實(shi)好(hao)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)“兩部制”電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)政策。建(jian)議(yi)各省(sheng)份盡(jin)快出臺煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)量電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)實(shi)施細則(ze)，穩定煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)企(qi)業固定成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)回收預(yu)期(qi)，推動煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組進行必(bi)要的(de)投資和改造。加強對(dui)各地落實(shi)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)政策監管，及(ji)時糾正以降價(jia)為目的(de)專場(chang)交易，避免不(bu)合理干(gan)預(yu)。建(jian)立(li)健(jian)全跨(kua)(kua)省(sheng)跨(kua)(kua)區(qu)容(rong)量電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)分攤機(ji)(ji)(ji)制，推動跨(kua)(kua)省(sheng)跨(kua)(kua)區(qu)中長期(qi)交易的(de)簽約(yue)履約(yue)，保障電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)應基本(ben)(ben)盤。加強國家層面對(dui)熱價(jia)調(diao)整的(de)指導，考慮優(you)化供(gong)熱機(ji)(ji)(ji)組容(rong)量成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)回收機(ji)(ji)(ji)制，研(yan)究熱工況(kuang)下供(gong)熱機(ji)(ji)(ji)組靈(ling)活性(xing)調(diao)節能力與(yu)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)量電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)機(ji)(ji)(ji)制的(de)合理銜(xian)接。研(yan)究并推動新型儲(chu)能容(rong)量電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)政策盡(jin)快出臺。
二是加快完善新能源(yuan)參與市(shi)場(chang)交易(yi)電價機制(zhi)。增(zeng)加新能源(yuan)發電調(diao)整(zheng)合同(tong)的(de)機會(hui)，縮(suo)短交易(yi)周期(qi)，提高交易(yi)頻(pin)率。允許不同(tong)電源(yuan)品種(zhong)之間(jian)自由轉讓市(shi)場(chang)合同(tong)，增(zeng)加市(shi)場(chang)合同(tong)的(de)流(liu)通性。新能源(yuan)優(you)先發電計劃應轉為政府授權合約機制(zhi)，保障新能源(yuan)企業(ye)合理收(shou)益。各地結合實際情況，開展用戶峰谷電價的(de)時段調(diao)整(zheng)，挖掘(jue)午間(jian)用電需求。
三是加(jia)(jia)快推進(jin)綠(lv)(lv)色電(dian)(dian)(dian)力市(shi)場建設。加(jia)(jia)快推進(jin)綠(lv)(lv)證(zheng)交(jiao)易方法(fa)及實(shi)施細(xi)則出臺，豐富綠(lv)(lv)證(zheng)應(ying)(ying)用(yong)場景(jing)。逐步將分布(bu)式(shi)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)、生物質發電(dian)(dian)(dian)等形(xing)式(shi)的(de)(de)可再(zai)生能源(yuan)納入綠(lv)(lv)電(dian)(dian)(dian)供應(ying)(ying)體(ti)系，進(jin)一步擴大綠(lv)(lv)電(dian)(dian)(dian)供應(ying)(ying)規模。加(jia)(jia)快培育綠(lv)(lv)電(dian)(dian)(dian)消費市(shi)場，體(ti)現新(xin)能源(yuan)綠(lv)(lv)色環(huan)境價值，提升新(xin)能源(yuan)參與市(shi)場的(de)(de)經濟性。完善綠(lv)(lv)證(zheng)交(jiao)易機(ji)制，暢通購買綠(lv)(lv)電(dian)(dian)(dian)和綠(lv)(lv)證(zheng)的(de)(de)渠道(dao)，落實(shi)全(quan)社會(hui)共同推動能源(yuan)轉型的(de)(de)責任。
(三)加快推動新型電力(li)系統建設
一(yi)是加(jia)強新(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)頂層設(she)計。堅持系(xi)統(tong)觀念，加(jia)強對新(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)的源(yuan)網荷儲統(tong)籌(chou)規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)和建(jian)(jian)設(she)。統(tong)籌(chou)優化電(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)發展規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)，加(jia)強電(dian)力規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)與(yu)其他專項(xiang)規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)的指導與(yu)銜(xian)接作(zuo)用。完善(shan)構建(jian)(jian)新(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)的相關(guan)配(pei)套(tao)政(zheng)策，從市(shi)場機制建(jian)(jian)設(she)、技術創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)、示范推(tui)廣等多(duo)方面統(tong)籌(chou)推(tui)進。
二是(shi)統籌推(tui)進(jin)新能源(yuan)(yuan)大(da)基(ji)(ji)地(di)(di)建設。強化(hua)新能源(yuan)(yuan)基(ji)(ji)地(di)(di)、支撐性電源(yuan)(yuan)和輸(shu)送通道同步規(gui)劃設計和同步運行(xing)，保(bao)障大(da)基(ji)(ji)地(di)(di)按期投產，積極推(tui)動綠色清潔電力消納。加強指(zhi)導(dao)地(di)(di)方政府解(jie)決非技術成本不斷攀升問(wen)題(ti)，加大(da)對土地(di)(di)價格、配套產業(ye)等限制性政策的(de)監督，保(bao)障大(da)基(ji)(ji)地(di)(di)開發企業(ye)合(he)(he)理權益和收益。在(zai)大(da)基(ji)(ji)地(di)(di)建設用(yong)地(di)(di)、用(yong)林、用(yong)草、用(yong)水等手續辦理上開設綠色通道，以滿足(zu)大(da)基(ji)(ji)地(di)(di)的(de)建設進(jin)度(du)要(yao)求(qiu)。綜(zong)合(he)(he)考慮(lv)各地(di)(di)資源(yuan)(yuan)稟賦、調節能力、電網建設等因素制定合(he)(he)理的(de)差異化(hua)的(de)新能源(yuan)(yuan)利用(yong)率目標。
三(san)是統籌提升電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統調(diao)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力。加(jia)大政策支持力度，持續(xu)推(tui)進煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)“三(san)改聯動”及(ji)(ji)支撐性(xing)調(diao)節(jie)(jie)性(xing)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的建(jian)設(she)，提升電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統應急(ji)保(bao)障(zhang)和調(diao)峰(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力。完(wan)(wan)善峰(feng)谷電(dian)(dian)(dian)價，積極推(tui)動完(wan)(wan)善新型(xing)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)參與市場(chang)(chang)機制(zhi)，發揮儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)調(diao)節(jie)(jie)作用。加(jia)快抽(chou)(chou)水(shui)蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)建(jian)設(she)及(ji)(ji)改造，推(tui)動已開工(gong)的項目盡快投(tou)產(chan)運行，盡早發揮作用;因地(di)制(zhi)宜建(jian)設(she)中(zhong)小(xiao)型(xing)抽(chou)(chou)水(shui)蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)。加(jia)快確立抽(chou)(chou)水(shui)蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)獨立市場(chang)(chang)主體地(di)位，推(tui)動電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)平等參與電(dian)(dian)(dian)力中(zhong)長期市場(chang)(chang)、現貨(huo)市場(chang)(chang)及(ji)(ji)輔(fu)助服務市場(chang)(chang)交(jiao)易。發揮流域(yu)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)集群效益，實現水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)與新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源多能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)互補運行。推(tui)進多元化儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技術研發與應用，優化儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)布局場(chang)(chang)景(jing)，推(tui)動獨立儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)發揮調(diao)節(jie)(jie)作用。
四(si)是推動電(dian)(dian)力(li)領(ling)域科(ke)技(ji)(ji)創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)。加強(qiang)新(xin)(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)基礎理(li)論研究(jiu)，推動能(neng)源電(dian)(dian)力(li)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)研發與應用向數(shu)字化(hua)(hua)、智(zhi)能(neng)化(hua)(hua)和綠色(se)化(hua)(hua)轉型(xing)。深入研究(jiu)適應大(da)規(gui)模高(gao)比例新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源友好并網的(de)先(xian)進電(dian)(dian)網和儲能(neng)等新(xin)(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)支撐技(ji)(ji)術(shu)，開展(zhan)高(gao)比例新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源和高(gao)比例電(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)子(zi)裝備接入電(dian)(dian)網穩定運行控制技(ji)(ji)術(shu)研究(jiu)。鼓勵電(dian)(dian)力(li)企業圍(wei)繞技(ji)(ji)術(shu)創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)鏈開展(zhan)強(qiang)強(qiang)聯合和產學(xue)研深度(du)協作，集中突破關鍵核心技(ji)(ji)術(shu)。加大(da)新(xin)(xin)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)應用示范的(de)支持(chi)力(li)度(du)，加快新(xin)(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)、儲能(neng)、氫(qing)能(neng)、CCUS等標(biao)準(zhun)體系研究(jiu)，發揮標(biao)準(zhun)引領(ling)作用。
注釋：
1.各項統(tong)計(ji)數據均未包括香港特(te)別(bie)行政區(qu)、澳門特(te)別(bie)行政區(qu)和臺灣省。部分數據因四舍(she)五入的原因，存在總計(ji)與分項合(he)計(ji)不等的情況。
2.兩年(nian)平(ping)均(jun)增速是(shi)以2021年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)值為基(ji)數，采(cai)用幾何平(ping)均(jun)方法計算。
3.規模(mo)以上(shang)電(dian)廠發電(dian)量統計(ji)范圍為年主(zhu)營業(ye)務收入(ru)2000萬元及以上(shang)的電(dian)廠發電(dian)量，數(shu)據來源于國家統計(ji)局(ju)。
4.四大高載能行業(ye)包括：化學(xue)原料和(he)化學(xue)制(zhi)品(pin)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)、非金屬礦物(wu)制(zhi)品(pin)業(ye)、黑(hei)色金屬冶煉和(he)壓(ya)延加(jia)工業(ye)、有色金屬冶煉和(he)壓(ya)延加(jia)工業(ye)4個行業(ye)。
5.高(gao)技術及(ji)裝(zhuang)備(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)包括(kuo)：醫藥制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、金屬制(zhi)(zhi)品業(ye)(ye)(ye)、通(tong)用設備(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、專用設備(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、汽(qi)車制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、鐵路/船舶(bo)/航空航天和(he)(he)其他(ta)運輸設備(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、電氣機械(xie)和(he)(he)器(qi)材制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、計算機/通(tong)信和(he)(he)其他(ta)電子設備(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、儀器(qi)儀表制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)9個行業(ye)(ye)(ye)。
6.消費品(pin)(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)包(bao)括(kuo)：農(nong)副(fu)食品(pin)(pin)加工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、食品(pin)(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、酒/飲料及精制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)茶制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、煙草制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、紡織業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、紡織服裝/服飾業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、皮(pi)革/毛皮(pi)/羽毛及其(qi)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)和制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)鞋業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、木(mu)材(cai)加工(gong)和木(mu)/竹/藤/棕/草制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、家(jia)具(ju)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、造(zao)(zao)(zao)紙和紙制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、印(yin)刷和記(ji)錄媒(mei)介復制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、文教/工(gong)美/體育和娛樂(le)用品(pin)(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)12個(ge)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。
7.其(qi)他(ta)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)為制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電分(fen)類的(de)31個行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中，除四大(da)高載能行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、高技(ji)術及裝備制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、消費品行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)之外的(de)其(qi)他(ta)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)，包(bao)括(kuo)：石油/煤炭(tan)及其(qi)他(ta)燃(ran)料加(jia)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、化(hua)學(xue)纖維制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、橡膠和塑料制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、其(qi)他(ta)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、廢(fei)棄資源綜(zong)合利用(yong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、金屬(shu)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品/機械和設備修理業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)6個行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。
8.東(dong)部地(di)區(qu)包括(kuo)北(bei)京(jing)、天津(jin)、河北(bei)、上海(hai)(hai)、江蘇(su)、浙江、福建、山(shan)東(dong)、廣(guang)東(dong)、海(hai)(hai)南10個省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(市(shi));中(zhong)部地(di)區(qu)包括(kuo)山(shan)西(xi)、安徽、江西(xi)、河南、湖北(bei)、湖南6個省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng);西(xi)部地(di)區(qu)包括(kuo)內蒙古、廣(guang)西(xi)、重慶、四川、貴州、云南、西(xi)藏、陜西(xi)、甘肅(su)、青海(hai)(hai)、寧夏(xia)、新疆(jiang)12個省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(市(shi)、自治區(qu));東(dong)北(bei)地(di)區(qu)包括(kuo)遼寧、吉林(lin)、黑龍(long)江3個省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。
